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Methodology and corrections

How a state note is built, and how we correct it

Method

  • Source: each state’s figures come from the Accountant-General’s FAAC state schedule (Table III), read from the PDF. State notes use revenue months from June 2025 onward.
  • Deductions: “deducted at source” means OAGF’s external debt, contractual obligation (ISPO) and other deductions from the statutory allocation, plus its VAT deduction column. The 50% ecology transfer to NDDC/HYPPADEC is a statutory sharing rule, not a deduction, and is shown on its own line.
  • Months: labelled by revenue month. Cash arrives the following month.
  • Normal: the median of the 11 prior revenue months, with the window stated.
  • Brackets: government PDFs print negatives in brackets, so (206) is −206.
  • Local governments: figures on the terminal are ONYX estimates apportioned from state data and labelled “state observed, LGA apportioned”. OAGF publishes each council’s own allocation; no state note uses an apportioned figure.
  • Your data: the same provenance rules apply to client data; every figure links back to its source row.

Corrections

A dated list of every public correction.

  • 26 Oct 2026: World Bank Transport and Energy infrastructure investment. From 25 October 2026 the Transport series on ONYX's Private Participation in Infrastructure page showed World Bank figures in dollars under a "USD million" label, so each value was a million times too large: 2021 read 68,000,000 and the change from 2019 read −982,000,000. The World Bank figures are US$68 million for 2021 and US$1,050 million for 2019. The cause was a missing unit conversion in ONYX's World Bank connector, applied when the series was refreshed on 25 October. The Energy series on the same page had the same fault, in rows stored from 13 June until 25 October 2026: its 2023 value read 116,000,000 and is US$64.5 million. Both series are fixed at source, and the connector now tests the conversion. Source: World Bank Open Data, IE.PPI.TRAN.CD and IE.PPI.ENGY.CD, current US$, last updated 8 October 2026.
  • 27 Oct 2026: Food inflation for January–November 2025. Since at least 16 Oct 2026, ONYX showed food inflation for January–November 2025 at NBS’s first prints instead of NBS’s revised figures (for November, as a second value beside the revised one). From 20 Oct, the food-inflation premium for those months mixed the two and read up to 3.6 points too low, with the wrong sign in five months. Both now use NBS’s revised 2025 series. Corrected on 27 October 2026.
  • 26 Oct 2026: Six earlier state FAAC allocations. From 14 June 2026, six monthly state FAAC allocations we showed did not match the Accountant-General of the Federation’s disbursement reports for the months they were shared: Plateau, February 2020 (₦0.18bn shown; the report prints ₦2.86bn); Ebonyi, February 2020 (₦7.21bn; ₦3.53bn); Sokoto, February 2020 (₦4.48bn; ₦4.34bn); Cross River, January 2022 (₦0.18bn; ₦3.47bn); and Anambra, August 2024 (₦0.55bn; ₦13.00bn) and September 2024 (₦0.49bn; ₦11.83bn). We had taken them from our source for state allocations without checking each one against the Accountant-General’s report. None was a sign error. Each figure now comes from the report itself, and the local-government estimates calculated from the wrong figures are withdrawn. We have also added Akwa Ibom and Cross River for February 2020, which our source does not carry. These figures appeared only on pages for signed-in users and through the keyed API. Corrected on 25 October 2026.
  • 22 Oct 2026: Ekiti FAAC allocation for January 2026. From 14 June 2026 we showed Ekiti State’s net FAAC allocation for January 2026 as ₦6.69bn. The Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation’s disbursement report for that month prints a net of −₦6.69bn: deductions at source were larger than the state’s share. Our source for state allocations shows the figure without its minus sign, and our importer did not restore it, so the total for all states that month was ₦13.37bn too high. The Ekiti figure now comes from the Accountant-General’s report and the importer reads signs. The 16 local-government estimates for Ekiti that month were calculated from the wrong figure and are withdrawn. Corrected on 19 October 2026.
  • 19 Oct 2026: State figures corrected after a source review. A review of state and Lagos series against each publisher’s own documents and data found the errors below, each live from the date given until this correction. State food prices for January–April 2026 could not be traced to any NBS report: a data connector held the values in its own code, many labelled as estimates, and saved a placeholder file as their source. They were live from mid-June 2026 and are withdrawn. State IGR for 2023 was wrong for 19 states and the FCT from 5 June 2026: the figures were typed in by hand, cited to an unrelated NBS report, and did not match NBS’s figures (18 too low; Anambra and Kano too high). Lagos showed ₦683.0bn against NBS’s ₦815.86bn. All 20 now use NBS’s Internally Generated Revenue at State Level 2023. From 26 May 2026, we showed a Lagos 2024 IGR of ₦651.0bn, citing a BudgIT report that contains no IGR; it is withdrawn. From 20 June 2026, we showed ₦17.17tn as 2024 “National Total State Revenue (all states)”, citing BudgIT. That figure is not in BudgIT’s State of States 2025, which gives ₦14.4tn as the total recurrent revenue of 35 subnationals, Rivers excluded; the value and the label are corrected. From 20 June 2026, 107 of 111 state and FCT figures from the NDHS 2023-24 for antenatal care (four or more visits), facility delivery and skilled birth attendance used DHS’s estimate for the three years before the survey, not its preferred two-year estimate, because our connector did not select the preferred one. The gap averaged about 1.2 percentage points and reached 4.5 (Ondo facility delivery: 78.7% shown, 83.2% preferred); all 107 are corrected. Also from 20 June 2026: StartupBlink’s Lagos figures from its 2026 index were shown as 2025, and Startup Genome’s Lagos figures ($15.3bn ecosystem value, five unicorns) appear on neither its 2025 nor its 2026 Lagos page; both now use the 2025 editions. Lagos GDP for 2024 and 2025, a projection in the state’s 2025 Economic Development Update, was shown as actual and no longer is; a 5.76% growth figure for 2025 that we could not find in that report is withdrawn. A 2020 projection of Lagos power demand (10,000 MW) and an undated supply figure (2,000 MW) were shown as 2026 and are withdrawn. Each corrected value now cites the publisher’s own document or data.
  • 17 Oct 2026: Debt service and FGN revenue. We had put debt service at about 40% of FGN retained revenue. On the Budget Office basis it was 76.7% for January–September 2025.
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