Analysis

Analysis

Sourced analysis of Nigerian public money: FAAC, deductions, debt and state finances. Every figure carries its source and date, and corrections are published with a date.

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Latest analysis

July 2026 · 8 min read

Nigeria’s FAAC Is Seasonal: July Runs Hot, March Runs Cold — and the Obvious Way to Measure It Is Wrong

Ten years of state-level allocations, indexed against trend by the month the cash actually lands. July receipts sit 9.3% above trend and have for 8 of the last 10 years; March sits 6.4% below. We also publish the number we nearly published instead, and why it overstated the pattern by two-thirds.

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July 2026 · 7 min read

Nigeria, July 2026: A Third Straight FAAC Record, a New Market High, and $52bn in Reserves

The stabilisation of H1 hardened into a trend — a record federation payout, a stock market that erased its June correction and made new highs, and the strongest reserves since January 2009. With the receipts.

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July 2026 · 7 min read

Nigeria’s Debt Problem Is Not the Debt: Why Service-to-Revenue Is the Ratio That Binds

At about ₦167tn, Nigeria’s debt looks manageable against GDP. Against the government’s revenue, debt service took about 77 kobo of every naira the federal government retained in January–September 2025 — and that is the ratio that actually constrains the budget.

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July 2026 · 6 min read

Nigeria’s $51bn Reserves: Why the Number That Defends the Naira Isn’t the One in the Headline

Gross external reserves are at a multi-year high. The figure that actually backs the currency — net of swaps and forward commitments — is a different, smaller number, and the gap is the part most trackers skip.

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July 2026 · 6 min read

Nigeria’s $10.4bn Capital Importation: Why 95% Portfolio and 1% FDI Is the Whole Story

Q1 2026 capital inflows cleared the Q1 2019 peak. The headline is a genuine recovery. The composition is a warning — and the two get quoted as if they were one thing.

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July 2026 · 7 min read

Nigeria FAAC allocation explained: what states receive and what is deducted

FAAC first cleared ₦2 trillion on July 2025 revenue, and in April and May 2026 it set new records. The headline is real. The subnational story underneath it is where the decisions live.

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July 2026 · 6 min read

Nigeria’s CPI Rebasing (2024=100): Why You Can’t Compare the Old and New Inflation Numbers

Nigeria re-based its inflation index in 2024. Comparing a pre-rebase print to a post-rebase one — as several trackers still do — produces a disinflation story that isn’t real.

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July 2026 · 8 min read

Nigeria H1 2026: The Stabilisation Report

The first six months since 2021 that can be told without the words freefall, crisis, or emergency — with the sources, and the caveats.

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